Today Apple is due to release the latest version of macOS, Sonoma. Here’s my forecast of what we can look forward to over the coming year.

Version numbers and updates

Since Big Sur, Apple has used a more rational system to number the versions of macOS, based on three numbers separated by stops/periods: VV.M.PP. VV is the major version number, 14 for Sonoma; M is the minor version number, normally starting at 0 and ending at 7; PP is the patch number, starting at 0 and possibly reaching as high as 10 in the exceptional case of the last security update to Big Sur, 11.7.10, released earlier this month.

Apple releases a major new version of macOS each autumn/fall, having announced it and explained many of its new features at WWDC held in early June. During the year that it’s the current version of macOS it receives full support, including security updates according to Apple’s assessment of their urgency, general bug fixes and improvements, and some new features. Most of those are rolled into scheduled minor updates, for example in going from 14.2 to 14.3.

Urgent security updates may now be released as smaller Rapid Security Responses (RSR), that don’t require a full macOS update. For those, Apple appends a letter in parentheses after the regular version number, so macOS 14.2.1 (b) represents version 14.2.1 with the second or (b) RSR installed. Patch updates and RSRs aren’t scheduled, but are added to the update sequence to address urgent bugs and vulnerabilities, as and when they arise.

Not all security vulnerabilities are suitable for release as RSRs. For example, if they require a patch to the macOS kernel, that can’t (currently) be achieved using an RSR. But for some of the most common types of security fix, including those to Safari and WebKit, an RSR should be an excellent way of addressing a vulnerability within days, and without the overhead of releasing a full macOS update. Apple then includes any fixes addressed in recent RSRs in the next macOS update, and may also incorporate fixes in security updates for its two older supported versions of macOS, 12 Monterey and 13 Ventura during the Year of Sonoma.

26 September: 14.0

The first full release follows over three months of developer and public beta-testing. This should contain most if not all the features announced for the new macOS, but some may be held over to a later minor update if they’re not yet ready. Apple aims to include fixes for bugs that have been identified and reported during beta-testing, but some will be held over, to be addressed in later releases.

Mid-December: 14.1

The emphasis in this first minor update is on fixing bugs that have either come to light since the initial release, or couldn’t be fixed in time for that. This update may also include new features that weren’t ready for that version, or weren’t intended for it. For example, the new Freeform app was released in 13.1.

Late January 2024: 14.2

This continues the emphasis on fixing bugs, and potentially adding some new features. With this update, Apple’s engineering emphasis transfers more to preparing the next major version of macOS (15), so that it will be ready for beta-release in early June.

Late March: 14.3

This minor version has an interesting history of introducing early releases of new internal sub-systems, such as XProtect Remediator in 12.3, that only become fully functional late in the development cycle, or those destined for the next major release of macOS, as with XProtect’s behavioural version and Bastion. Otherwise its emphasis remains on fixing bugs and completing features.

Mid-May: 14.4

By this time, Apple’s efforts are being concentrated on finishing the first beta-release of macOS 15 in time for release at WWDC in a few weeks, so little more than remaining bug fixes are likely. Unfortunately, this also means that only the most serious bugs reported over this period are likely to be fixed in Sonoma, with many being deferred to macOS 15.

Early June: M3 Macs announced at WWDC

Although Apple might announce its next generation of chips earlier, this is the most likely time for them to be detailed to a rapturous reception in Cupertino, making the release of new models incorporating the M3 chip most likely for September 2024. As with previous chip cycles, these first M3 Macs are likely to offer the regular version, with Pro, Max and Ultra following in 2025.

Late July: 14.5

This is the last call for general bug fixes, as Apple’s engineers are now working intensely on preparing macOS 15 for release after the summer beta-testing season.

September: 14.6

Although mainly a security update, this is the last chance for any changes to ensure compatibility with iCloud and new features to be released in the autumn/fall upgrades to iOS, iPadOS, macOS and all the devices. From here on, Sonoma transfers to security-only updates until support is discontinued in the summer of 2026 with MacOS 14.7.x.