Updating macOS is a far more complex series of processes than it used to be, and the progress bar displayed in Software Update settings is complicated as a result. To capture all the phases that precede installation of an update, the progress bar moves through a series of stages, only one of which is downloading. This article identifies and explains them.

Start

When the Software Update pane offers a macOS update, it has already done a lot of the preliminary work, in fetching the catalogue of updates, checking through them to determine which could be installed, and working out what that would require. This enables it to provide a first estimate of how much needs to be downloaded. Note this is only an estimate at this stage, and may not include additional components such as an update to Rosetta 2.

Once you’ve agreed to install the update now, the progress bar is displayed.

Progress shown here covers many different processes, of which the most substantial are the download and preparation phases. Although progress shown during the download will vary depending on the speed of your Mac’s connection with Pallas, Apple’s software update servers, other sections are determined by the completion of tasks required for the installation, and may proceed in fits and starts.

Before the download can begin, softwareupdated has initial preparations to make, including reloading and downloading the Update Brain responsible for much of the task of installation. Following that are extensive preflight checks, and together those account for the first 15% of the progress bar shown. On a fast Apple silicon Mac, the progress bar may jump straight to that 15%.

Download

This starts at that arbitrary 15%, and is completed when the bar reaches 55%. In between those it should progress according to download speed, but that can be highly non-linear.

This displays a more accurate total size for the download, and the current amount that has already been downloaded. In this case, the bulk of this update is coming over the network from my Content Caching server, so its initial estimate is for a brief period of just 2 minutes. The progress bar then moves in proportion to the amount downloaded, not the time.

Although most of the download can be cached, for Apple silicon Macs the last 1 GB or so has to be obtained for each update from Pallas. As a result, the progress bar suddenly slows as it’s approaching 55%, and the estimated time remaining increases before decreasing again.

Preparing

As soon as the download is complete, there’s another preflight phase lasting from 55%-60%, then the downloads are prepared for installation. This phase doesn’t apparently involve their decompression, which is largely performed on the download stream during the download phase.

Preparations are arbitrarily assigned a period of 30 minutes to complete, but now seldom if ever require that long. As they’re allocated to the last 40% of the progress bar, this phase usually completes much quicker than the times given.

The final 5 minutes are often the slowest, and can take a few minutes longer than that, as the files for installation are gathered into a ‘stash’ ready for the Update Brain to install. Because the progress bar tends to jump straight from 95% complete to 100% this can make it look as if the update has frozen.

Installing

As soon as preparations are complete and reach 100% on the progress bar, the Mac prepares to restart into the installation phase, for which you’re given a 1 minute countdown before the screen goes black and installation happens.

Progress bar key phases

• 0-15% preparation, preflight; usually brief
• 15-55% download; on Apple silicon Macs, last 1 GB usually can’t be cached, so slower
• 55-60% preflight; brief
• 60-100% preparing; last 5 minutes may be longest.

I hope this helps you make sense of what you see during macOS updates, at least until the screen goes black and the installation starts.