How well did I predict events for the last year? And what are my predictions for the next?
The app told me that in 10 minutes it would rain for 10 minutes, but there was a 43% chance of rain over the next hour.
Models used so far to explain viral events lack explanatory or predictive value. It is time to turn to Catastrophe Theory.
There seems no doubt that intensely viral events occur. Characterising their early stages remains very difficult, requiring sensitive analysis on a huge data stream.
There is already a substantial queue of organisations waiting to know how to create intensely viral events, and how to control them.